Brazilian shooting instructor Fernando Matos shoots a PT 380 pistol in a firing range
© AFP Antonio Scorza

RIO DE JANEIRO (AFP) - The government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, rights groups and the Roman Catholic church believe the argument for the ban cannot be shot down.

More than 500,000 people were killed in Brazil between 1979 and 2003, according to UN figures, and many tourists now think twice about a walk along Rio de Janeiro's famous Copacabana beach for fear of being held up at gunpoint.

There are more than 17 million firearms in Brazil, of which nine million are not registered, according to the Higher Institute of Religious Studies (Iser), which carried out a study with the Rio Alive and Small Arms Survey non-government groups.

But the public is cynical and polls show support for the measure slumping.

Fifty-two percent of the 122 million Brazilians eligible to vote in the referendum will oppose the ban, according to a survey by Toledo and Associates released on Wednesday.

Before the campaign started on October 1, other polls had shown up to 76 percent of the public in favour.

But the pro-gun lobby -- arms makers and even some victims of violence -- has aired aggressive campaign adverts against a ban, one using the image of South African leader Nelson Mandela linking his fight for freedom to the argument that people should be allowed to own firearms.

Residents of the Rocinha shantytown in Rio de Janeiro cross a footbridge to take a bus
© AFP Vanderlei Almeida

The Toledo poll of 1,947 people highlighted public doubts about the measure.

Fifty-seven percent believed banning sales of arms and ammunition would not reduce crime. Fifty-nine percent said they would feel defenceless against criminals if they were not allowed to have a gun.

In the shanty towns of Rio, dominated by drug-trading gangs, few think that a ban on arms would bring more peace to their lives.

Rene Mello, secretary of the neighbourhood association in the Rocinha favela on the hills overlooking some of Rio's wealthiest homes, told AFP that every day the 70,000 people who live in the shantytown suffer "police violence and discrimination."

Disarmament is not the main solution to Brazil's violent crime, said Mello.

"The police will not stop attacking the traffickers and the traffickers will not stop attacking the police. Thieves will not stop burgling houses because the people there are not armed," he said.

The upper part of Rocinha is controlled by a drug gang, which defends its territory with heavy arms when the police or rival gangs try to launch operations against them.

Supporters in favor of a referendum to ban guns sales, prepare polystyrene crosses to be put on Rodrigo de Freitas lagoon
© AFP Vanderlei Almeida

"Most people here are poor but honest. There are bandits here but they leave us in peace. They do not steal and they do not kill in the favela. I feel safer here than in other parts of the city," said Xavier, one resident.

Mello said that the armed gangs do more social work in the favelas than government departments.

"They give medicines, food, gas bottles, toys for children and a feeling of safety," he said.

The government passed a law in 2003 tightening restrictions on the sale and carrying of weapons. In July 2004 it launched a campaign to disarm the population, even offering to pay up to 100 dollars for every assault rifle handed in.

By September of this year, about 440,000 guns had been turned in, according to official figures.

But many people say they are too frightened to follow suit or to vote for a ban on weapons sales.

"It will be worse, everyone will know we are disarmed," said Raimundo Moacir Felix de Souza, a 64-year-old store owner.

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